What is bias and variance?
A model with high bias will make strong assumptions about the relationship between the input features and the output, resulting in a simpler model that may not fit the training data well. On the other hand, a model with high variance will make weak assumptions about the relationship between the input features and the output, resulting in a more complex model that will fit the training data well but may not generalise well to unseen data.
The ideal model would have a balance of both low bias and low variance, but in practice, it is often a trade-off between the two.
We can visualise the effects of bias and variance using a dartboard. Bias can be thought of as the accuracy of the darts, and variance can be thought of as the consistency across throws.
How can we reduce bias and variance?
One way to reduce bias is to increase the complexity of the model, such as adding more parameters or features. However, this often increases the variance, which can lead to overfitting, where the model performs well on the training data but poorly on unseen data. On the other hand, reducing the complexity of the model, such as by removing parameters or features, can reduce the variance, but it also increases the bias. This can lead to underfitting, where the model does not perform well on either the training data or unseen data.
Regularisation is a common approach to handle the bias-variance trade-off. Regularisation is a technique that penalises certain model parameters if they are too large. This helps to keep the model from becoming too complex, and therefore, reduces the risk of overfitting.
Another important aspect of the bias-variance trade-off is cross-validation, which is a technique used to evaluate a model’s performance and assess its ability to generalise to unseen data. Cross-validation involves splitting the data into different subsets, such as training and validation sets, and training the model on the training set and evaluating its performance on the validation set. This allows us to estimate the model’s performance on unseen data, which can be useful for comparing different models and selecting the best one.
Another technique related to bias-variance trade-off is ensemble methods. Ensemble methods are a set of models that work together to obtain a better performance than any of them individually. This is usually achieved by averaging their predictions or by having each model vote for the final output. By combining the predictions of multiple models, ensemble methods can often reduce the variance of the final model without increasing its bias. This is because different models will make different types of errors and by averaging the predictions, we can reduce the impact of any single model’s errors.
It is important to note that the bias-variance trade-off is not limited to supervised learning, it also applies to unsupervised learning. For example, in clustering, a model with a high bias is one that may not discover the true structure of the data, leading to inaccurate clusters, while a model with high variance may discover fine-grained details but fail to generalise.
The bias-variance trade-off is a key concept in machine learning and statistics that refers to the trade-off between a model’s ability to fit the training data well and its ability to generalise to unseen data. It’s important to consider the bias-variance trade-off when developing models, and it can be addressed using techniques such as regularisation, cross-validation and ensemble methods. By keeping the bias-variance trade-off in mind, data scientists can develop models that are both accurate and robust to unseen data.
If you have any questions, or ideas for how we can help you with any data science projects, get in touch at firstname.lastname@example.org